Ingredients for the Perfect Storm

As long as supermarket shelves are well stocked the concept of food scarcity doesn’t reach consciousness. Buying food daily is an activity 90 per cent of Australians living in urban areas do with the majority of buyers not giving a thought to the origins of what they are buying or how it reached the shelves.

What is noticed, however, are rises in prices (usually) connected to the ‘cost-of-living-crisis’ with a variety of alleged causes. Sharp focus is now on oil and potential reduction of supplies with the old price elasticity conundrum ringing loudly; the less supply, the higher the price with scarcity the trigger. At least there is some focus now on how dependent agriculture is on fossil-fuels literally to keep tractor and trucks rolling, but also on how the inputs used are impacted with the Straits of Hormuz now closed, or seriously restricted to hundreds of container ships.

Annual cereal crops grown in monocultures in Australia rely on synthetic fertilisers and chemical pest, weed and fungal controllers. The majority are manufactured overseas as is 90 per cent of refined fuels required to power the vehicles with maybe 28 days of fuel reserved actually in the country at any one time.

Seventy per cent of the world’s phosphorus is in Morocco where synthetic fertiliser manufacturing is a major industry for the country’s economy. In 2024, Russia was the world’s largest fertiliser exporter – 15.1% of total exported fertilisers with the next nine countries as follows –

• Mainland China: $8.5 billion (10.1%)
• Canada: $6.7 billion (8%)
• Morocco: $5.4 billion (6.4%)
• United States: $5.2 billion (6.2%)
• Saudi Arabia: $5 billion (5.9%)
• Belgium: $2.9 billion (3.4%)
• Oman: $2.7 billion (3.2%)
• Egypt: $2.43 billion (2.9%)
• Netherlands: $2.41 billion (2.9%)

Although there are Australian companies making synthetic fertilisers, all ingredients are imported so the reliance on imports is maintained and, in the current volatile geopolitical situation of violent unrest in the Middle East, Australia’s vulnerability is very exposed. How will this translate into the growing of cereal and oil crops in 2026?

The major fertiliser suppliers in Australia are Incitec Fertiliser Providers, Koch fertiliser Australia, Impact Fertilisers and FertiGlobe Australia. Every skerrick of synthetic fertiliser used in the growing of monoculture cereals, pulses and oilcrops is imported.

The usual commodity business model sees farmers always attempting to reduce the costs of production as, being a price-taker, means adding any input costs to the sale-price does not happen. Another element affecting the price of wheat in Australia is the quantity of wheat already in the global markets and the carry-over from 2025 is already substantial resulting in lower on-farm prices for wheat. Some indications suggest wheat will only be worth between $255/tonne to $400 / tonne. With higher diesel and fertiliser costs any profit will be miniscule, and maybe costs of production may not be reached.

Interestingly, the National Farmers Federation’s strategy to reach $100b worth of exports by 2030 does not support Australian farmers, as they claim, as on-farm costs result in farmers probably going into more debt. The NFF do not acknowledge the total debt of rural entities (currently around $127b) and never mention this aspect of ‘farming as a business’ in Australia.

The questions to ask are –

• How will the costs of agriculture in Australia translate into shelf prices in supermarkets?
• Is this controllable?
• Who financially benefits the most?
• What are potential outcomes on hundreds of farms where cost pressures are exacerbated?
• Will there be an increase of suicides?
• What government policies deliberately or inadvertently contribute to these conditions?
• What is in OUR control?

Given the above, most of these elements are out of our control as we reduce where we travel, what we will buy (or not) and how the next few months will play out. On this day, the 9th March, reports of limiting the quantities of fuel one can buy in parts of Australia are already happening and fuel prices have increased more than 30c / L overnight in my own small town.

This storm is not directly of our making except for the decisions we make when it comes to which foods we choose to buy.

“Eating is a Political Act”
-Wendell Berry.

Supermarkets have enjoyed unparalleled financial success for a few reasons, one certainly being convenience – being able to purchase almost every household, stationary, hardware and beverage purchases in one building with one payment. In providing this model, the demise of thousands of small businesses is the outcome. Whereas once country towns had independently owned grocer, butcher, green-grocer, newsagency, haberdasher, bottle shop, ice-factory and jam and cordial makers, and service stations, these small businesses have all gone, due to the domination of supermarkets. In addition, they also have very aggressive policies to ensure no competition can exist by buying up real estate and encouraging councils to prevent other brands from setting up in town.

So-called ‘Free’ Trade Agreements have directly contributed to Australia’s reliance on imported goods with the free-market economy idiom – comparative advantage. An example is South Korea became a world force mass producing cars to the extent that Australia no longer has any automotive manufacturing. Yes, the brands made in South Korea are cheaper but a powerful unintended consequence is the loss of knowledge and, therefore, capacity to be self-sufficient.

This is especially so with food.

For decades, Australia’s population was basically self-sufficient and growing food was a family priority. The classic quarter-acre housing block in the suburbs was deemed big enough to raise chooks and poultry, have a vegie garden and an orchard. Now, housing blocks are 600m/2 with the houses taking up 500m/2 with emphasis on a home theatre and three bathrooms rather than any outside activities.

Check the origins of 70% to 80% of foods on supermarket shelves and you’ll discover they are imported. It isn’t that Australia can’t produce most of them (Beluga caviar is an exception) but these foods are manufactured cheaper thanks to the ‘comparative advantage’ in production, usually labour costs and high use of toxic chemicals.

But, there are 13,800 food manufacturers in Australia, most relying on cheap commodity ingredients and what is largely produced and the environmental outcomes is indicated here……

These products create the perfect storm of chronic diseases affecting more than 50% of Australia’s population, record numbers of Non-Communicable Diseases, ever-increasing incidences of auto-immune diseases, environmental degradation and continuing species extinctions.

Governments actively support the use of toxic chemicals in the production of commodities which, as well as being causes of many diseases, are also a legitimised form of land-clearing; death by a thousand cuts. The constant applications of these killercides affects the functions of landscapes with fewer species of flora, fauna and fungi and contributing to more extreme weather variations. Where there used to be balance between atmosphere, small water cycles, retention of moisture within the earth’s surface and appropriate numbers of herbivores keeping the plant cycles in harmony. For decades the agribusiness sector has had unfettered and underscrutinised business activities. With the introduction of Sustainability Auditing, this will change as environmental damage is required to be recorded in every business’s activities.

Shortages of fossil-fuels is but one ingredient in the perfect storm to expose Australia’s vulnerability through the lens of food insecurity. We’ve mentioned variable weather conditions, an unwell population, a lack of government will to make decisions for the next decade, much less five generations, the influences of vested interest lobbies, social engineering and the hangover from millions of Australians being forced to stay at home through lockdowns and a population inexperienced and unfamiliar as to how to grow their own foods. The domination of food supply systems by multinational corporations, the diminution of secondary processing facilities such as muti-species micro-abattoirs and dairy processing due to ‘food safety’ regulations results in local communities being reliant on transport companies shipping and trucking foodstuffs thousands of kilometres away from their origins.

Long supply chains are only possible with cheap fossil-fuels and, with the closure of the Hormuz Strait and unrest in the Middle East and Europe, provision of synthetic fertilisers and refined fuels are in jeopardy.

The good news: the storms can be mitigated, and avoided.

Agroecology is the system which utilises home-grown ingredients and has less reliance on imported fuels. Wholistic appreciation and management of food-growing systems requires resourcefulness, not just cash. Soil is a living, breathing, metabolising organism essential for planetary, landscape and human health and wellbeing. Ancient food production knowledge provides constant capacity through seasons and circumstances to ensure reliable foods grown in local and seasonal conditions.

Wild foods are in abundance when the cringe-factor is overcome and there are more than 30,000 edible plants across the planet. Industrial production systems have reduced the number to around 100 being available for consumption through supermarkets from tightly managed and controlled businesses.
Yes, there’s money to be made in the ‘big food’ business which has nothing to do with human health

A few questions need to be asked to challenge the prevailing narrative that the world’s population will reach nine billion people by 2050, doubling the food production is required to ‘feed everybody’ and this can only be done in monocultures using toxic chemicals. This ‘plan’ is reliant on cheap fossil-fuels and long supply-chains. The current storm of upheaval and unreliability tips this strategy upside down with the most reliable means to ensure everyone has food are local food systems = short supply chains, local knowledge and variety and strong community cohesions.

What is sometimes regarded as a romantic notion – to grow your own foods – needs to make a comeback.  ORICoop is making that possible.  Join our journey here – either as an ORICoop member or by subscribing to our blog for updates.

The definition of a food culture is when people talk about food and think of Italy, France, Romania and Hungary where people share ideas and knowledge about how they are learning through trialing new methods at the human-scale of growing foods. Swapping seeds, cuttings, produce and recipes is normal life which is influenced by seasons and intimately felt in everyday activities. Their connections to Mama Earth are consistent and respectful, and heading forwards to the past is happening now.

• Avoid supermarkets. Grow as much as you can. Eat with the Seasons. Trade with your neighbours.
• Buy locally, get to know your farmers. Join (or Start) your local Food Cooperative or Buying Hub
• Buy 100% Australian – wherever you can

Pennie Scott
Director – ORICoop – https://organicinvestmentcooperative.com.au/
Canowindra NSW
Mobile – 0427 441 107
For any Media enquiries please contact pennie at orca@organicinvestmentcooperative.com.au

‘Every food choice we make, decides the food future for the next generation’